Trade: Crude Oil all time high by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $62K
- Total Volume
- $157K
- 24h Volume
- $967
- Open Interest
- $78K
Market outcomes
| May 31 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| September 30 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| June 30 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| December 31 | 42% YES | 59% NO |
Market context
Crude oil would need to breach $147.27 per barrel on the CME's front-month contract to establish a new all-time high by end-2026. The previous record of $147.27 was set in July 2008 during the financial crisis, when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East coincided with peak demand expectations and constrained supply. Reaching that level again requires either a significant supply disruption or a demand shock substantially larger than current market conditions suggest.
The 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the structural headwinds facing such a move. Global crude production has expanded since 2008, with US shale output now exceeding 13 million barrels daily, whilst demand growth has moderated in developed economies. Even the 2022 spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine peaked at $130, well short of the 2008 record. Traders pricing this market are essentially betting against a perfect storm of supply collapse and demand surge within two years.
Catalysts worth monitoring include escalation in the Middle East (particularly involving major producers like Saudi Arabia or Iraq), unexpected outages at critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, and any sudden contraction in US shale production. The OPEC+ production agreement and its compliance rates remain material; any significant shortfall in output combined with geopolitical shock could tighten markets sharply. However, the current trajectory suggests the probability assigned reflects realistic assessment of the tail-risk scenario required for such an extreme move.
Wikipedia Context
-
PetroleumPetroleum, also known as crude oil or simply oil, is a natural resource that appears as a yellowish-black liquid chemical mixture found in geological formations, consisting primarily of hydrocarbons. The term petroleum refers to both naturally occurring unprocessed crude oil, as well as to petroleum products that consist of refined crude oil.
-
Crude oil washing
Crude oil washing (COW) is the process of washing out residue from oil tankers using the crude oil itself.
-
Crude oil stabilisation
Crude oil stabilisation is a partial distillation process that renders crude oil suitable for storage in atmospheric tanks, or of a quality suitable for sales or pipeline transportation. Stabilization is achieved by subjecting ‘live’ crude to temperature and pressure conditions in a fractionation vessel, which drives off light hydrocarbon components to form
-
Crude Oil (film)
Crude Oil is a 2008 Chinese documentary film directed by Wang Bing. Filmed in the Inner Mongolian portion of the Gobi Desert, it follows a group of oil field workers as they go about their daily routine.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Crude Oil all time high by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$157K in lifetime turnover and $62K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $967 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Crude Oil all time high by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: