Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has collapsed since Houthi attacks began in late 2023, forcing carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. The Suez Canal Authority reported 5,847 container transits in 2023, averaging roughly 2,923 per half-year. By 2024, this had fallen to approximately 874 transits per half-year—a 70% decline. The resolution criterion requires 2,000+ transits in the first half of 2026, a figure between the pre-attack baseline and current depressed levels.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the scale of recovery required. Container shipping would need to more than double from 2024 levels within eighteen months, yet the underlying security situation remains unresolved. Houthi attacks have persisted through 2024 and into 2025 despite international naval presence, and major carriers including Maersk and MSC have shown reluctance to resume Suez transits without sustained security improvements.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding Red Sea security operations, any ceasefire agreements involving Houthi groups, and shipping industry guidance on route planning. The SCA publishes monthly transit data, with H1 2026 figures becoming available by mid-2026. Insurance premiums for Suez passage and carrier earnings calls will signal confidence in corridor restoration. A meaningful recovery would require either decisive military action against attack capabilities or a political settlement—neither appears imminent based on current reporting.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$137K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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