Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Party K | — | |
| Party L | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Party H | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Republican | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Democratic | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Party A | — | |
Americans will elect their next president on 7 November 2028, with the winner taking office on 20 January 2029. The race will determine whether the Republican or Democratic party controls the White House for the subsequent four-year term. Resolution depends on agreement amongst the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; should disagreement persist through inauguration day, the market settles on whoever is sworn in. This represents one of the most significant recurring political events in American electoral cycles, with implications spanning domestic policy, international relations, and market sentiment.
Historical precedent suggests competitive presidential races typically see implied probabilities shift materially across the 18-month period preceding election day. The 2020 election saw meaningful probability swings tied to primary outcomes, convention announcements, and debate performances. The 2024 cycle demonstrated similar volatility, with candidate viability shifting substantially following Iowa and New Hampshire results. Current market pricing reflects the earliest stage of the 2028 cycle; as the field clarifies—particularly following 2026 midterm results and 2027 primary announcements—order book depth and probability formation on Polymarket will likely experience significant repricing.
Key catalysts include formal candidate declarations (typically beginning in late 2027), primary election results starting January 2028, party conventions in summer 2028, and the three scheduled presidential debates. Economic data, geopolitical events, and legislative developments will influence sentiment throughout. The resolution window closes at inauguration, providing a defined endpoint for settlement determination across all three news sources.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.8M in lifetime turnover and $533K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for us presidential election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 11 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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