Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 25 at 7:00 PM ET.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 19%, making this a high-confidence market with 25 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $15K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| O/U 4.5 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| Tunisia (-1.5) | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Tunisia (-2.5) | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Netherlands (-2.5) | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Tunisia and the Netherlands will contest a FIFA World Cup match on 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices a "YES" resolution at 19%, implying the market assigns roughly a one-in-five chance that additional markets for this fixture will be created before the settlement window closes on 25 June at 23:00 UTC.
Polymarket's market creation patterns for World Cup fixtures show that secondary markets typically emerge only for matches involving major footballing nations or those with exceptional narrative weight. Tunisia, ranked 30th globally, has historically generated limited secondary-market activity compared to European or South American sides. The Netherlands, conversely, consistently attracts supplementary betting markets. The 19% probability reflects the asymmetry: whilst Netherlands matches often spawn additional markets, Tunisia's participation alone has rarely triggered them absent exceptional circumstances. Comparable World Cup cycles show that markets proliferate around knockout stages and high-profile group matches; a group-stage fixture involving Tunisia faces structural headwinds.
Traders should monitor whether Tunisia or the Netherlands qualify for the knockout rounds, as progression typically accelerates market creation. Polymarket's own operational decisions—whether to proactively list additional markets for all fixtures or only high-volume ones—will prove decisive. Any significant injury to key Netherlands players or unexpected Tunisia form in qualifying matches could shift expectations around fixture salience. The settlement window's tight closure (same day as kickoff) means market creation must occur well before the match itself, constraining the window for late-stage catalysts to influence probability.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 25 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Tunisia vs. Netherlands - More Markets", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($15K of resting liquidity), a $100 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Tunisia vs. Netherlands - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38 in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Tunisia vs. Netherlands - More Markets", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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