Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to which team hits the greater number of sixes in the cricket match between Hong Kong, China and Bahrain scheduled for 2026-05-31 in T20 Asian Games, Qualifier. This market resolves according to the finalized match statistics as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Hong Kong, China will be considered correct if Hong Kong, China is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Bahrain.The outcome corresponding to Bahrain will be considered correct if Bahrain is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Hong Kong, China. If both teams record the same number of sixes, the market will resolve to "Draw".
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 5 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| HON2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| BHR | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hong Kong and Bahrain will contest a T20 Asian Games qualifier match on 31 May 2026, with settlement determined by official ESPN Cricinfo statistics on which team strikes more sixes. The current orderbook on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for Hong Kong, China, reflecting strong market conviction that Bahrain will either hit more sixes or the teams will finish level. This pricing emerges from the accumulated bids and asks across the platform's liquidity pool, where traders have positioned heavily toward the Bahrain outcome.
Historical T20 qualifier cricket demonstrates substantial variance in six-hitting rates depending on pitch conditions, bowling quality and team composition. Hong Kong has competed in recent ICC qualifiers with modest batting firepower relative to regional opponents, whilst Bahrain's participation in Asian Games cricket remains limited in recent tournament data. Comparable T20 qualifier matches show that teams with stronger established batting lineups typically accumulate sixes at higher rates, though smaller cricket nations can produce outlier performances on favourable pitches.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding squad selection and any pre-match injury updates closer to 31 May, as these directly affect batting depth and aggressive intent. Venue conditions at the designated Asian Games ground—pitch behaviour, boundary dimensions and weather forecasts—will materially influence six-hitting frequency. Recent form in domestic T20 competitions for both nations' key batsmen represents another observable catalyst, though limited public match data exists for Bahrain's squad. The settlement window closes 2 June 2026, allowing roughly one week post-match for ESPN Cricinfo to publish final verified statistics.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 8 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.espncricinfo.com/), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain - Most Sixes", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($0 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain - Most Sixes" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain - Most Sixes", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: