Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming GCT: Super Rapid & Blitz Poland 2026 | Rapid match, scheduled for May 7, 2026 between D Gukesh and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| D Gukesh | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (D Gukesh vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 100% YES | 0% NO |
D Gukesh and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave are scheduled to meet in Round 7 of the rapid section at the Grand Chess Tour event in Poland on 7 May 2026. The match will be played at classical time controls (rapid format), distinct from the blitz component of the same tournament. Gukesh, the world's youngest grandmaster and a consistent top-10 player, faces Vachier-Lagrave, a French grandmaster with a strong record in rapid and blitz formats. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an absence of liquidity at any price or genuine consensus that this outcome carries negligible likelihood.
Historical GCT rapid results show that Gukesh has performed competitively against peers of Vachier-Lagrave's calibre, though rapid outcomes are volatile and dependent on form, preparation, and psychological factors on the day. Vachier-Lagrave has won multiple rapid tournaments and maintains a solid Elo rating above 2700. The 0% probability should be read as a liquidity signal rather than a definitive market assessment—such extreme prices often indicate thin order books rather than certainty.
Traders should monitor GCT announcements regarding final pairings, any player withdrawals, or schedule changes closer to May 2026. Recent tournament reports from chess.com and FIDE will provide updated ratings and recent form. The settlement window closes 14 May 2026, allowing time for the round to conclude and results to be confirmed. Rapid tournaments occasionally produce unexpected results due to time-pressure dynamics, making the current probability worth reassessing as the event approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://lichess.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "D Gukesh vs. Maxime Vachier-Lagrave - GCT: Super Rapid & Blitz Poland 2026 | Rapid (Round 7)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://lichess.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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