Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Schalke 04 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On Saturday, 9 May 2026, 1. FC Nürnberg will host FC Schalke 04 in a 2. Bundesliga fixture. The settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC that day, capturing the full-time result. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 100% implied probability for the event occurring, reflecting near-certainty that the match will be played as scheduled.
Both clubs carry significant historical weight in German football. Nürnberg, a former Bundesliga regular, has spent recent seasons in the second tier; Schalke 04, once a European competitor, has similarly endured a prolonged spell outside the top division following financial and sporting difficulties. Their May fixture carries playoff or final-day implications depending on the 2025–26 season's competitive structure, which typically intensifies trading activity around such matches. The 100% probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in minimal cancellation risk—weather disruptions, administrative issues, or team unavailability are being treated as negligible at this stage.
Key catalysts to monitor include injury announcements from either squad in the weeks preceding the match, any fixture rescheduling by the Deutsche Fußball-Liga, and confirmation of both teams' participation in the league through May. Polymarket's order book will adjust if material news emerges regarding team stability or league governance. Currently, the probability reflects standard operational assumptions for a scheduled professional fixture in a stable domestic league.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$107K in lifetime turnover and $619K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $104K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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