Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between May 4 and May 10, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| MAGA | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Oil | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Epstein | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Congress | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tariff | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Polymarket | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Center | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The New York Times publishes approximately 40–50 stories on its front page each week, distributed across print and digital editions. The market resolves based on whether a specific term appears in primary headlines (the largest, bolded text directly preceding articles) during the week of 4–10 May 2026. The current 0% implied probability reflects minimal order book activity, suggesting either low trader interest in this particular term or genuine scarcity of comparable precedent for its appearance in NYT front-page headlines.
Historical analysis of NYT front-page coverage shows that major geopolitical events, economic data releases, and domestic political developments dominate headline real estate. Terms appearing in headlines typically correlate with stories receiving significant editorial weight—those covering presidential statements, Federal Reserve decisions, military developments, or major corporate announcements. The 0% probability may indicate the specified term lacks typical newsworthiness triggers or falls outside established NYT editorial priorities. Comparable markets tracking generic headline terms have historically resolved YES at rates between 15–35%, depending on term breadth and news cycle volatility.
Traders should monitor scheduled economic releases, earnings seasons, and political calendars for the week in question. The NYT's editorial decisions shift based on breaking news, which remains unpredictable. Recent reporting patterns suggest the outlet maintains consistent coverage of inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and technology regulation. The absence of any buy-side activity at 0% may represent genuine belief in non-appearance or simply insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful market price.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (May 4 - May 10)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$265K in lifetime turnover and $441K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for frontpage contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $124K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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