Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 6% YES | 94% NO |
A Chinese military invasion of Taiwan remains one of the most consequential geopolitical risks, yet Polymarket's order book currently prices the probability of such an offensive by end-2026 at just 6%. This implies traders assess the likelihood of Beijing initiating a full-scale military operation to seize control of Taiwan's inhabited territory within the next two years as remote. The resolution criteria require official confirmation of a military offensive intended to establish control, with recognition from China, Taiwan, the UN, or a permanent Security Council member.
Historical precedent suggests sustained military posturing without escalation to invasion. The 1995–96 Taiwan Strait crisis saw Chinese military exercises and missile tests yet no amphibious assault; subsequent decades have featured recurring tensions, military buildups, and political rhetoric without crossing into kinetic warfare. The 2022 Nancy Pelosi visit triggered significant exercises but similarly stopped short of invasion. These cases establish a pattern where China has demonstrated willingness to conduct intimidatory operations whilst maintaining strategic ambiguity about actual invasion intentions.
Near-term catalysts traders should monitor include Taiwan's presidential statements and military readiness announcements, US policy shifts following the 2024 election cycle, and any major cross-strait diplomatic incidents. The Taiwan Defence Report and Chinese military exercise schedules typically signal strategic intent. Additionally, developments in US-China relations—particularly around technology restrictions and military posturing in the South China Sea—could alter calculations. Economic pressures, domestic political instability in either jurisdiction, or miscalculation during military exercises represent tail-risk triggers, though current market pricing suggests traders view these as unlikely within the two-year window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$32.0M in lifetime turnover and $1.0M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for foreign policy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $92K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 11 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 6%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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