Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 50+ bps decrease | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 25 bps decrease | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| No change | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| 25 bps increase | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| 50+ bps increase | 11% YES | 89% NO |
The Federal Reserve's September 2026 FOMC meeting will determine whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate moves from its current level. The market is pricing a 5% probability that a decision will occur—meaning traders on Polymarket's order book are assigning a 95% likelihood that rates remain unchanged at the September gathering. This implies consensus expectation of a hold, with the crowd currently willing to trade at tight odds against any adjustment.
Historical context shows that consecutive holds have become the norm in recent Fed cycles. Between 2018 and 2019, the FOMC held rates steady for extended periods despite market speculation about cuts. Similarly, after the 2022–2023 tightening cycle concluded, the Committee maintained the funds rate in a 5.25–5.50% range through multiple meetings. September meetings have not been reliably associated with outsized policy moves; most adjustments cluster around December or March gatherings when fresh economic projections are released.
Traders should monitor August employment data, core inflation readings, and any Fed communications in the weeks prior to the September meeting. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, will be released in late August and could shift expectations if it shows unexpected momentum. Additionally, any recession signals or financial stability concerns emerging in late summer could alter the calculus, though current market pricing suggests such scenarios are not yet priced in at meaningful levels. The settlement window closes 16 September 2026, immediately after the decision.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fed Decision in September?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$62 in lifetime turnover and $205K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fomc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $62 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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