Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit Week of June 1 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $177 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑ $174 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| ↑ $171 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| ↑ $168 | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| ↑ $165 | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| ↑ $162 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $159 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $156 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Palantir Technologies' share price will either breach a specific threshold during the week commencing 1 June 2026, or it will not. The settlement window closes on 5 June at 20:00 UTC, giving traders a five-day observation period. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 8% implied probability for a YES resolution, suggesting market participants view the target price as unlikely within that narrow timeframe.
Historical volatility in PLTR has ranged considerably since its direct listing in September 2020. The stock has experienced multi-week rallies exceeding 20–30% during periods of government contract announcements or broader market momentum shifts, yet single-week moves of comparable magnitude remain statistically infrequent outside earnings seasons or major geopolitical developments. Comparable defence-technology equities like Northrop Grumman and L3Harris Technologies typically see weekly swings of 3–7% under normal conditions, providing a baseline for assessing the probability's reasonableness.
Traders monitoring PLTR should track Q1 2026 earnings releases, any new federal contract awards, and broader equity-market sentiment heading into early June. Palantir's government revenue streams remain sensitive to defence spending announcements and intelligence-community procurement cycles. Macroeconomic data releases and Federal Reserve communications in late May could also influence sector rotation. The 8% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the combination of these factors as priced by active traders today, with liquidity available for both sides of the wager through the settlement window.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics software. Palantir is headquartered in Miami, Florida, and was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit Week of June 1 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $150 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: