Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑$250B | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑$225B | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ↑$175B | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| ↑$160B | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| ↑$155B | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| ↑$200B | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| ↑$165B | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| ↑$150B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Databricks' private market valuation could reach a specified threshold by 30 June 2026, with settlement determined by Nasdaq Private Market's daily NPM Price quotes. The market currently prices this outcome at 5% probability, reflecting the order book's assessment that such a valuation milestone represents a substantial jump from the company's last known private valuation of $43bn in September 2023. Traders are pricing in the difficulty of achieving material upward revaluation within an 18-month window, particularly given the private market's typical lag behind public market sentiment and the absence of announced IPO plans that might trigger formal revaluation events.
Historical precedent suggests private unicorns rarely see dramatic valuation increases without triggering liquidity events or major funding rounds. Stripe, Canva and others have held relatively stable private valuations between funding cycles, though companies entering late-stage growth phases sometimes see 20–50% uplifts when institutional investors compete for allocation. Databricks' position as a profitable, revenue-generating platform company differs from earlier-stage unicorns, potentially limiting the speculative upside that would drive rapid revaluation.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding secondary share sales, new funding rounds, or strategic partnerships that might prompt NPM repricing. Recent enterprise software market conditions and Databricks' quarterly revenue growth trajectories will inform institutional appetite for higher valuations. The settlement mechanism's reliance on NPM's trading activity means liquidity and institutional participation in the secondary market will ultimately determine whether sufficient trading volume occurs to establish a new price point before the June 2026 deadline.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Databricks' valuation hit 2026 by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $162 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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