Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Under Armour is estimated to release earnings on May 12, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Under Armour’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.02 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Under Armour reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.02 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Under Armour releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? | 70% YES | 31% NO |
Under Armour will report first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on 12 May 2026, with the market resolving based on whether non-GAAP earnings per share exceed the consensus estimate of −$0.02. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 71% probability, reflecting substantial confidence that the company will post a loss smaller than expected or achieve a modest profit. This implies traders are pricing in a roughly one-in-three chance of a miss, suggesting material uncertainty despite the elevated implied probability.
Under Armour has faced sustained headwinds in recent years, including wholesale channel pressures and international market challenges that have weighed on profitability. The consensus estimate of −$0.02 itself signals expectations of a small loss, which contextualises the 71% probability: the bar for beating is relatively low, requiring only that losses narrow further or that the company returns to profitability. Historical patterns show athletic apparel companies often surprise on the upside when guidance has been conservative, though UAA's execution track record remains mixed.
Key catalysts ahead include any pre-earnings commentary from management, wholesale order trends from major retailers, and currency headwinds affecting international revenue. The company's direct-to-consumer channel performance will be closely watched, as will inventory management across its distribution network. Traders should monitor any guidance revisions or strategic announcements in the weeks before 12 May, as these frequently shift consensus expectations and repricing on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $81 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $236 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 70%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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