Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Theravance Biopharma is estimated to release earnings on May 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Theravance Biopharma's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.03 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Theravance Biopharma reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.03 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Theravance Biopharma releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Theravance Biopharma will report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 14 May, with the Street consensus targeting GAAP EPS of $0.03. The current Polymarket order book shows zero probability assigned to the company beating this estimate, reflecting either extreme confidence in consensus accuracy or minimal trading activity at present price levels. This represents a binary outcome: any reported EPS above $0.03 resolves the market affirmatively, whilst $0.03 or below resolves negatively.
Biotech firms with modest positive EPS guidance typically demonstrate narrow miss-or-beat distributions. Theravance's historical earnings volatility and the specificity of the $0.03 consensus figure suggest the Street has calibrated expectations tightly around near-breakeven performance. The zero probability on Polymarket may indicate traders view the consensus as defensible given the company's recent operational trajectory, though such extreme pricing often reflects low liquidity rather than fundamental conviction.
Key catalysts ahead include any management commentary on product sales, royalty revenues from partnered assets, and cash burn rates—factors that typically drive biotech earnings surprises. Theravance's revenue streams depend partly on milestone payments and licensing arrangements, which can create timing volatility. Traders should monitor for pre-earnings guidance updates or analyst revisions in the weeks preceding 14 May, as these often precede material probability shifts on prediction markets. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on the earnings date itself.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: