Resolution criteria on PolyGram: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 8?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $760 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $755 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $750 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $745 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $740 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $735 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $730 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $725 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On 8 May 2026, the S&P 500 tracking fund SPY will close at a specific price level. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES side, indicating that traders are pricing in an expectation that SPY will not close above the specified threshold on that date. This extreme probability skew typically emerges when the strike price sits substantially above prevailing spot prices or when market participants have converged on a consensus view about near-term price action.
Historical precedent suggests that 0% probabilities on equity price targets often reflect either a strike price set at an unrealistic premium to current levels or a market environment where downside risk dominates trader sentiment. During periods of elevated volatility or economic uncertainty, such as the 2022 bear market, traders routinely priced tail-risk closures at near-zero odds. Conversely, when strikes are set modestly above spot, even modest probability assignments typically emerge; the complete absence of YES bids here signals either a structural mismatch between the strike and expected price action, or consensus pessimism about SPY's trajectory through May 2026.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic data releases scheduled between now and settlement, particularly inflation reports and Federal Reserve communications that could shift equity valuations. Earnings seasons, geopolitical developments, and shifts in real yields will influence whether the current pricing holds. The order book depth and any movement in the implied probability will reflect how new information reshapes expectations for SPY's closing price on that specific date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$78K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $42K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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