Trade: NVIDIA Data Center Revenue above __ in Q1?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nvidia’s data center revenue for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
- $6K
- 24h Volume
- $155
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| 60B | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 80B | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| 50B | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| 55B | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 65B | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| 70B | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| 75B | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Market context
NVIDIA's data centre revenue for fiscal Q1 2027 (ending April 2027) will determine whether this market resolves affirmatively. The company reported $18.1bn in data centre revenue for Q3 fiscal 2025, representing 81% of total revenue, with sequential growth driven by sustained demand for AI accelerators and cloud infrastructure upgrades. The 98% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence that NVIDIA will maintain or exceed the specified threshold, though the exact figure remains undisclosed in the market title.
Historical context shows NVIDIA's data centre segment has grown consistently quarter-on-quarter since the generative AI boom accelerated in late 2022. Even during periods of supply constraints and inventory corrections, the segment has remained robust. Comparable forecasts from equity analysts tracking NVIDIA typically project continued expansion through calendar 2025 and into 2026, though growth rates may moderate from the exceptional levels seen in 2024. The 98% probability suggests traders view the threshold as conservative relative to consensus expectations.
Key catalysts include NVIDIA's official earnings announcement for fiscal Q1 2027, scheduled for late May 2026, which will provide definitive revenue figures. Traders should monitor quarterly guidance trends, customer concentration risks (particularly exposure to hyperscalers), and competitive pressures from AMD and custom silicon development. Recent analyst reports from firms tracking semiconductor demand will inform market positioning ahead of the settlement window closing 27 May 2026. Any material revenue miss or guidance reduction could shift probabilities materially, though current positioning suggests limited downside risk priced into the order book.
Wikipedia Context
-
Nvidia Parabricks
Parabricks company started at the University of Michigan by Mehrzad Samadi, Ankit Sethia, and Scott Mahlke. It was acquired by Nvidia in 2020.
-
Deep Learning Super Sampling
Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS) is a suite of real-time deep learning image enhancement and upscaling technologies developed by Nvidia that are available in a number of video games. The goal of these technologies is to allow the majority of the graphics pipeline to run at a lower resolution for increased performance, and then infer a higher resolution im
-
Nvidia Titan
Nvidia Titan is a series of video cards developed by Nvidia including:GTX Titan, released in 2013 GTX Titan Black, released in February 2014 GTX Titan Z, released in March 2014 GTX Titan X, released in March 2015 Titan X (2016), released in 2016 Titan Xp, released in April 2017 Titan V, released in December 2017 Titan RTX, released in 2018
-
GeForce 900 seriesThe GeForce 900 series is a family of graphics processing units developed by Nvidia, succeeding the GeForce 700 series and serving as the high-end introduction to the Maxwell microarchitecture, named after James Clerk Maxwell. They were produced with TSMC's 28 nm process.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NVIDIA Data Center Revenue above __ in Q1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$6K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $155 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NVIDIA Data Center Revenue above __ in Q1?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: