Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Amplitude is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Amplitude’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.01 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amplitude reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.01 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Amplitude releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Amplitude, the digital analytics platform provider, is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on 6 May 2026. The Street consensus estimate for non-GAAP earnings per share stands at −$0.01, meaning the company is expected to report a marginal loss. This market will resolve affirmatively only if Amplitude's actual non-GAAP EPS exceeds that −$0.01 threshold, representing a beat of the consensus estimate. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero implied probability for an earnings beat, suggesting traders are pricing in either a miss or an exact match to consensus.
The 0% probability reflects Amplitude's recent operational trajectory. The company has faced sustained pressure on profitability metrics, with multiple quarters of losses and margin compression. Comparable SaaS analytics firms have similarly struggled to demonstrate consistent profitability improvements, particularly in a competitive environment where customer acquisition costs remain elevated. Historical precedent suggests that when consensus expectations are already deeply pessimistic—set at a loss figure—achieving a beat requires either material cost discipline or unexpected revenue acceleration, both of which have eluded the company in recent quarters.
Traders should monitor Amplitude's guidance revisions and any management commentary regarding customer retention and expansion revenue in the weeks preceding the earnings release. Product adoption trends within enterprise segments and competitive positioning relative to rivals like Mixpanel and Segment will influence whether the company can narrow losses. Additionally, any strategic announcements regarding restructuring or operational efficiency initiatives could shift market expectations before the settlement window closes on 6 May.
Amplitude amplification is a technique in quantum computing that generalizes the idea behind Grover's search algorithm, and gives rise to a family of quantum algorithms. It was discovered by Gilles Brassard and Peter Høyer in 1997, and independently rediscovered by Lov Grover in 1998.
In the theory of quantum communication, an amplitude damping channel is a quantum channel that models physical processes such as spontaneous emission. A natural process by which this channel can occur is a spin chain through which a number of spin states, coupled by a time independent Hamiltonian, can be used to send a quantum state from one location to anot
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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