Fifa world cup

Trade: Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Türkiye and United States, scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Türkiye vs. United States match originally scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is…

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$70K
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

Exact Score: 0-0 6% YES94% NO
Exact Score: 1-0 9% YES91% NO
Exact Score: 1-1 9% YES91% NO
Exact Score: 0-3 5% YES96% NO
Exact Score: 2-1 10% YES91% NO
Exact Score: 1-3 5% YES96% NO
Exact Score: 3-1 5% YES96% NO
Exact Score: 3-2 5% YES96% NO

Market context

Türkiye and the United States will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 25 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 7% probability that the match will end in one of the explicitly listed exact-score outcomes, with the remaining 93% distributed across "Any Other Score"—reflecting the mathematical reality that predicting a precise scoreline among dozens of possibilities is inherently difficult.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in football typically see winning probabilities between 5–12% for any single listed outcome, depending on the specificity of the listed options and the teams' relative strength. Türkiye qualified for the 2026 World Cup as Group G winners in UEFA qualifying, whilst the United States secured a direct berth as co-hosts. Their recent competitive history shows mixed results: the teams last met in a friendly in 2018 (1–1 draw). Türkiye's tournament record includes a 2002 World Cup semi-final appearance, whilst the US reached the 2016 Copa América final, suggesting both sides possess tournament experience and defensive solidity.

Key variables for traders include team sheet announcements closer to match day, which may alter expected goal-scoring patterns, and the broader group-stage context—both teams' results in earlier fixtures could influence tactical approach and intensity. Weather conditions at the 2026 venue and any late injury news to key players will also influence scoring likelihood. Monitor official FIFA communications and team federation statements for any fixture changes or squad updates.

Wikipedia Context

  • Turkey–United States relations
    Turkey–United States relations

    Turkey and the United States established diplomatic relations in 1927. Relations after World War II evolved from the Second Cairo Conference in December 1943 and Turkey's entrance into World War II on the side of the Allies in February 1945. Later that year, Turkey became a charter member of the United Nations. Since 1945, both countries advanced ties under

  • Turkey–United Kingdom relations
    Turkey–United Kingdom relations

    The relations between Turkey and the United Kingdom have a long history. The countries have been at war several times, such as within the First World War. They have also been allied several times, such as in the Crimean War. Turkey has an embassy in London, while the United Kingdom maintains an embassy in Ankara and a consulate in Istanbul.

  • Turkey–United Arab Emirates relations
    Turkey–United Arab Emirates relations

    Turkey and the United Arab Emirates share extensive cultural, military, and economic ties, but their relations substantially deteriorated during the Arab Spring. However, relations between the two countries have significantly improved in recent years.

  • Turkey and the United Nations
    Turkey and the United Nations

    The Republic of Türkiye is one of the 51 founding members of the United Nations when it signed the United Nations Conference on International Organization in 1945.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $70K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fifa world cup contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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