Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Tunisia and Netherlands, scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Tunisia vs. Netherlands match originally scheduled for June 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-0 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-3 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
Tunisia and the Netherlands will meet on 25 June 2026 in a World Cup group stage fixture. The market is pricing an exact final score at 13% implied probability across Polymarket's order book, reflecting the specificity required—the outcome must match one of the explicitly listed scorelines precisely, with any other result settling to "Any Other Score." This represents a substantial discount to the combined probability of either team winning, as exact scores are inherently fragmented across numerous possibilities.
Historical World Cup group stage matches between these nations provide limited direct precedent, though Tunisia's record against European opposition in tournament play shows consistent defensive vulnerability. The Netherlands' attacking depth and tournament experience suggest they would be favoured in any scoreline outcome, yet Tunisia's occasional capacity to score—demonstrated in recent African Cup of Nations campaigns—means shutout results are not inevitable. The 13% probability implies the market is pricing roughly a one-in-eight chance of the exact score materialising, concentrated likely on outcomes like 2–0, 2–1, or 3–1 in favour of the Dutch.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through to match day, particularly regarding Netherlands' forward availability and Tunisia's defensive personnel. Recent FIFA rankings and qualifying campaign performance—Tunisia's mixed record in African qualifying versus the Netherlands' dominant European qualification—will inform pre-match analysis. Weather conditions in North America on match day and any late tactical shifts disclosed in pre-match press conferences could shift the probability of specific scorelines, particularly those dependent on goal-scoring volume.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fifa world cup contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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