Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The Federal Reserve's policy rate will be set at three consecutive FOMC meetings between mid-March and mid-June 2026. The market currently prices zero probability of any rate change—either a cut or a hike—across this three-meeting window, with the upper bound of the target federal funds rate remaining static. This reflects the order book on Polymarket, where the YES side (any qualifying move) trades at a significant discount to the NO side (no change).
Historical precedent suggests extended holding periods are common when inflation and employment data stabilise near the Fed's dual mandate targets. From 2018 to 2019, the FOMC held rates steady for eleven consecutive meetings after a tightening cycle, and similar pauses occurred in 2015–2016. The current 0% implied probability indicates traders expect the economic backdrop in spring 2026 to resemble these stable-conditions scenarios rather than periods of active adjustment.
Traders should monitor the Consumer Price Index and employment reports scheduled between meetings, particularly the February and May CPI releases and March and May non-farm payrolls data. Fed communications, including Chair Powell's testimony to Congress in February and any interim policy statements, will signal whether officials see conditions warranting adjustment. Recent inflation persistence and labour market resilience will shape expectations; any significant deviation from current trends could shift the order book materially before the March meeting.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.0M in lifetime turnover and $56K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for fed contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $520 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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