Trade: yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of yo's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If yo (https://x.com/yield) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $30
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| $100M | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| $200M | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $50M | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| $500M | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| $300M | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| $30M | 74% YES | 26% NO |
Market context
Yo, a yield-focused protocol, plans to launch a governance token with public trading and transferability. The market settles based on whether the token's fully diluted valuation—calculated as total supply multiplied by price—exceeds a specified threshold within 24 hours of launch, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following public trading commencement. The resolution uses the most liquid available price source.
Token launches in the decentralised finance space have historically shown extreme volatility in the first 24 hours, with FDV often spiking above long-term equilibrium levels due to initial buying pressure and limited liquidity. Comparable governance token launches—including those from yield-farming and liquidity protocols—have frequently reached peak valuations within hours of launch before settling lower. The 43% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty around both the initial price discovery mechanism and the specific FDV threshold in question, with traders pricing in meaningful probability that first-day valuations remain constrained by either modest initial demand or deliberate token distribution structures that suppress early FDV.
Key variables include the timing of the actual launch announcement, the initial token allocation structure, and competing yield opportunities in the broader DeFi landscape. Traders should monitor Yo's official communications for launch windows and any details regarding token distribution, vesting schedules, or initial liquidity provisions. Market conditions in early January 2028 will also influence capital availability for new token purchases, whilst broader crypto market sentiment and competing protocol launches during the settlement window could affect demand dynamics.
Wikipedia Context
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Yo Yo Honey SinghHirdesh Singh, known professionally as Yo Yo Honey Singh, is an Indian singer, music producer and actor. He commenced his career as a hip-hop music producer in 2003, working as a session and recording artist within the underground music scene until the release of his debut studio album, International Villager.
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Yo-yoA yo-yo is a toy consisting of an axle connected to two disks, and a string looped around the axle, similar to a spool. It is an ancient toy documented since 440 BC. It was also called a bandalore in the 18th century.
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Yo-Yo MaYo-Yo Ma is an American cellist. Born to Chinese parents in Paris, he was regarded as a child prodigy, and began to study the cello with his father at age four. Ma moved with his family to Boston at age seven and later to New York City, where he continued his cello studies at the Juilliard School before pursuing a liberal arts education at Harvard University
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Yo-yo clubA yo-yo club is a sporting side that is regularly promoted and relegated. The phrase is most typically used in association football in the United Kingdom, especially in reference to promotion to and relegation from the Premier League.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fdv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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