Trade: USD x Iranian rials End of June?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for June 30, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $661
Market outcomes
| 1.8-1.9M | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| 2.0M+ | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| <1.5M | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| 1.5-1.6M | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 1.9-2.0M | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 1.6-1.7M | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| 1.7-1.8M | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Market context
The Iranian rial has experienced sustained depreciation against the US dollar over the past decade, driven by sanctions, capital controls, and macroeconomic instability. The market is pricing a 37% probability that the USD/IRR exchange rate will fall within a specific bracket by 30 June 2026, based on current order book activity on Polymarket. This implies traders assess a 63% likelihood the rate will be higher (weaker rial) or fall outside the defined range. Bonbast's free-market rates typically diverge significantly from official central bank quotes, reflecting actual trading conditions in Iran's parallel currency markets.
Historical precedent suggests the rial's trajectory depends heavily on geopolitical developments and sanctions enforcement. Between 2015 and 2018, the rial weakened from roughly 30,000 per dollar to over 100,000 following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA. The subsequent period saw volatility tied to nuclear negotiations and oil export capacity. Current market pricing reflects uncertainty around US foreign policy continuity post-2024, Iranian domestic monetary policy responses, and potential shifts in sanctions regimes.
Key catalysts through June 2026 include announcements regarding US-Iran nuclear negotiations, oil sanctions enforcement, and Iranian central bank interventions in currency markets. Recent reporting on Iranian inflation and foreign exchange reserves will inform trader positioning. The settlement mechanism—using Bonbast's published daily figures with rounding to the higher bracket if rates fall between brackets—creates specific price sensitivity around bracket boundaries that sophisticated traders monitor closely.
Wikipedia Context
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Iran–United States relationsRelations between Iran and the United States in the modern day are unsettled and have a troubled history. They began in the mid-to-late 19th century, when Iran was known to the Western world as Qajar Persia. Persia was very wary of British and Russian colonial interests during the Great Game. By contrast, the United States was seen as a more trustworthy fore
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "USD x Iranian rials End of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for exchange rate contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "USD x Iranian rials End of June?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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