Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will the Ethereum implied volatility Index hit by May 31?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 100 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ 80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 55 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| ↓ 40 | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| ↑ 90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ 70 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 50 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The Ethereum Implied Volatility Index (EVIV) measures the market's expectation of 30-day price swings in ETH, derived from options pricing across major venues. The question centres on whether EVIV will reach a specific threshold by 31 May 2025. Currently, Polymarket's order book is pricing this outcome at 100% probability, suggesting traders believe the event is virtually certain within the settlement window. This extreme confidence warrants scrutiny against historical volatility patterns and near-term catalysts.
EVIV has historically ranged between 40 and 150, with spikes above 100 typically occurring during major market dislocations or regulatory announcements. The 2022 crypto winter saw sustained volatility indices above 120, whilst calmer periods in 2023–2024 saw readings cluster between 50 and 80. The current 100% implied probability suggests either the threshold is set conservatively low, or traders expect a significant volatility event within the next six months. Comparable episodes—such as the March 2020 liquidation cascade or the September 2022 Fed pivot—produced EVIV readings exceeding 130 within days.
Key catalysts include Ethereum's Shanghai and Dencun upgrades' market reception, Federal Reserve policy shifts affecting risk appetite, and regulatory developments around spot ETH ETFs or staking frameworks. Bitcoin's volatility often leads Ethereum's, making macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical events material. Recent options market activity and funding rate dynamics on perpetual futures will signal whether traders are positioning for elevated vol ahead of specific dates.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the Ethereum implied volatility Index hit by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $68 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for eviv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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