Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit May 25-31?
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $232K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 1,900 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 1,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 1,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 1,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 1,400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ethereum's price action during the final week of May 2026 will be determined by macroeconomic conditions, on-chain activity metrics, and any significant protocol or regulatory developments occurring in that window. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price range or insufficient liquidity at the extremes of the distribution; traders should examine the depth of bids and asks around key price levels to understand whether this represents genuine consensus or sparse positioning.
Historical precedent suggests Ethereum's weekly price movements typically range between 5–15% under normal market conditions, with larger swings occurring during Federal Reserve announcements, major cryptocurrency exchange events, or unexpected smart contract vulnerabilities. The May 2026 settlement window falls outside known quarterly earnings cycles for traditional equities, reducing one source of cross-asset volatility, though Bitcoin's behaviour will remain the primary driver of Ethereum's directional bias given their 0.7+ correlation coefficient.
Traders should monitor Ethereum's Shanghai and Dencun upgrade implementations' ongoing effects on staking yields and transaction throughput, any regulatory announcements from the SEC or EU regarding staking-as-a-service classification, and macroeconomic data releases scheduled for late May. Current order book positioning on Polymarket suggests the market is pricing in a narrow band; any catalyst triggering a move outside historical volatility ranges would likely shift the probability distribution sharply, making this market sensitive to tail-risk events rather than base-case price discovery.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "What price will Ethereum hit May 25-31?", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($232K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit May 25-31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$386K in lifetime turnover and $232K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $95K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "What price will Ethereum hit May 25-31?", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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