Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 2,275 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,290 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,305 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,320 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,335 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,365 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,380 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,395 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT hourly candle closing price at 3PM Eastern Time on 6 May 2026. The current 100% implied probability reflects either an exceptionally high strike price relative to Ethereum's historical trading range, or a technical specification that makes the outcome near-certain given standard market conditions. The settlement mechanism is precise: only the official Binance 1-hour candle close matters, excluding other venues or trading pairs.
Ethereum's volatility profile and historical price discovery suggest that extreme probability readings—whether 100% or near-zero—typically emerge when strike prices sit far outside realistic trading zones. For context, Ethereum has traded between roughly $1,000 and $4,000 across major bull and bear cycles since 2020, though intraday hourly candles routinely exhibit 2–5% swings. A 100% crowd probability at Polymarket's order book indicates either the strike is set substantially below current spot prices, or market participants view the specific hour window as highly constrained. Comparable single-hour settlement markets on major assets show that liquidity concentrates around strikes within one standard deviation of expected price action.
Traders should monitor Ethereum's macro catalysts in the weeks preceding settlement: regulatory announcements affecting staking or layer-2 adoption, Federal Reserve policy shifts that influence risk appetite, and any material changes to Binance's trading infrastructure or ETH/USDT pair specifications. Spot price movements in late April and early May will establish the relevant trading range; any significant volatility event could shift the probability structure if the strike price sits within realistic intraday movement bands.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above ___ on May 6, 3PM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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