Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 2,315 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,330 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,345 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,360 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,375 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,405 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,420 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,435 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT hourly close on 5 May 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. The 100% implied probability reflects either a strike price substantially below current spot levels or a technical setup where traders perceive minimal downside risk within the settlement window. Given Ethereum's historical volatility—daily swings of 3–8% are routine during periods of moderate activity—a probability this extreme typically indicates either a very conservative strike or an unusually tight timeframe where directional movement is constrained.
Comparable precedent exists in short-dated Ethereum price markets where hourly candle closes near current spot trade at 95–99% probability, particularly when the strike sits 2–5% below prevailing levels. Markets settling within 24–48 hours tend to compress toward extremes as the resolution window narrows and uncertainty diminishes. The current order book depth on Polymarket will show whether this 100% reading reflects genuine consensus or thin liquidity at the extremes.
Traders should monitor Ethereum's macro catalysts through early May: Federal Reserve communications, broader cryptocurrency market sentiment following any significant Bitcoin moves, and any protocol-level developments from the Ethereum Foundation. Binance's own operational status matters as well—exchange maintenance windows or trading halts would affect the hourly close used for settlement. The precision of the strike price relative to current spot will ultimately determine whether this probability holds or shifts materially as the settlement date approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above ___ on May 5, 10AM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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