Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Envy and MIBR in the VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for May 9 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Envy" if Team Envy win the match against MIBR. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against Team Envy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Team Envy face MIBR in a best-of-three Valorant match within the VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha competition, scheduled for 9 May at 20:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Team Envy, indicating traders are pricing near-certain victory for the North American organisation. This extreme skew typically emerges when one team holds a substantial competitive advantage or when historical matchup data heavily favours one side.
Team Envy's dominance in recent VCT Americas fixtures and MIBR's inconsistent domestic performance form the foundation of this probability assessment. Envy have maintained top-four finishes across multiple VCT stages, whilst MIBR—the Brazilian representative—has struggled to secure consistent wins against tier-one opposition. Previous encounters between these rosters have generally favoured Envy, and the skill differential in agent selection and map control remains pronounced. Such historical patterns typically anchor prediction markets at probabilities reflecting 85–95% conviction; the current 100% reading suggests the market has absorbed additional information about team form or roster changes.
Traders should monitor official VCT Americas announcements regarding any last-minute roster adjustments, player illness, or technical issues that could affect match integrity. The settlement window closes 10 May at 05:30 UTC, allowing a 24-hour buffer beyond the scheduled start time. Any delay exceeding seven days without completion triggers a 50-50 resolution. Current conditions favour the Envy thesis, but unexpected forfeiture, disqualification, or cancellation would invoke alternative settlement mechanics outlined in the market terms.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$299K in lifetime turnover and $1.4M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $299K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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