Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant match between LOUD and Leviatán Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for May 10 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against Leviatán Esports. This market will resolve to "Leviatán Esports" if Leviatán Esports win the match against LOUD. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: LOUD (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
LOUD and Leviatán Esports are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Valorant match on 10 May 2026 at 17:00 ET as part of the VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha round-robin. The match determines seeding within the group stage and carries implications for playoff positioning. Current Polymarket order book pricing reflects a 30% implied probability for Leviatán Esports to win, suggesting the market views LOUD as the favoured side.
LOUD has established itself as a consistent top-tier performer in the Americas region, whilst Leviatán Esports has shown variable form across recent VCT seasons. Historical matchups between these rosters and their respective regional standings provide context: LOUD typically commands higher win probabilities in direct encounters, though upsets occur when Leviatán executes disciplined map control and utility usage. The 30% probability for Leviatán reflects a meaningful underdog position rather than dismissal of their chances, consistent with how Polymarket prices competitive esports matches where preparation and meta-shifts can shift outcomes.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the scheduled start time, as player absences or stand-ins materially affect match outcomes. VCT Americas scheduling has occasionally experienced delays; the settlement window extends to 11 May 03:00 UTC to accommodate potential rescheduling within a 24-hour window. Map pool composition for Stage 1 and any recent patch changes to agent abilities should be tracked, as these shift team preparation priorities and can favour certain playstyles.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: LOUD vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$229K in lifetime turnover and $139K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $223K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: