Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 2 match between KPI Gaming and HGE Esports in the VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 3 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "KPI Gaming" if KPI Gaming win the match against HGE Esports. This market will resolve to "HGE Esports" if HGE Esports win the match against KPI Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: KPI (-1.5) vs HGE Esports (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: HGE (-1.5) vs KPI Gaming (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
KPI Gaming face HGE Esports in a lower bracket round 2 match within the VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Playoffs, a secondary Valorant competition tier in Spain. The fixture is scheduled for 3 May 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, with settlement closing shortly after the projected match conclusion. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for KPI Gaming, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in their victory or minimal liquidity depth at the current price, which typically occurs when traders perceive a match outcome as near-certain or when market participation remains sparse ahead of the event.
Lower bracket matches in regional Valorant competitions exhibit variable predictability depending on team roster stability and recent form. Spanish VCL Rising events have historically seen upsets when teams field substitute players or experience mid-season roster changes, though established squads typically advance as expected. The 100% probability here may reflect prior knowledge of team composition, recent head-to-head records, or perceived skill disparity, but such extreme probabilities often compress when additional traders enter the order book closer to match time.
Key variables for traders include confirmation of final rosters by both organisations, any last-minute schedule adjustments from the VCL Spain organisers, and whether either team announces player absences. The settlement window closes at 21:15 UTC on 3 May, allowing approximately 10 hours post-scheduled start time for match completion. Any cancellation, postponement beyond 7 days, or incomplete match without a determined winner triggers a 50-50 resolution, introducing tail risk that current pricing may not fully reflect.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/kpi_gaming. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/kpi_gaming. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: