Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket final match between Ghools Esports and Team RA'AD in the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage North Africa Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 6 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Ghools Esports" if Ghools Esports win the match against Team RA'AD. This market will resolve to "Team RA'AD" if Team RA'AD win the match against Ghools Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: GLS (-1.5) vs Team RA'AD (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ghools Esports face Team RA'AD in the upper bracket final of the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage North Africa Playoffs, a best-of-three Valorant match scheduled for 6 May at 12:00 PM ET. The winner advances directly to the grand final, whilst the loser drops to the lower bracket. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in Ghools' superiority or minimal liquidity in the market, a common pattern for regional esports fixtures with smaller trading volumes.
Historical context for MENA Valorant suggests upper bracket finals typically feature the region's two strongest teams, making match outcomes less predictable than the current probability implies. Ghools and RA'AD have competed in multiple VCL MENA seasons; their head-to-head record and recent form matter significantly. Previous regional playoffs have seen upsets when lower-seeded teams execute superior mid-round economy management or exploit map-specific vulnerabilities. The settlement window extends to 22:00 UTC on 6 May, providing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches.
Traders should monitor team roster changes, scrim results, and official VCL MENA communications in the days before the match. Any last-minute substitutions or technical issues affecting either squad could shift expectations. The current 100% probability likely reflects thin order book depth rather than genuine certainty; meaningful liquidity entering the market could reveal more balanced pricing as match day approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team RA'AD (BO3) - VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage North Africa Playoff" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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