Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between FunPlus Phoenix and Nova Esports in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1, initially scheduled for May 12 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FunPlus Phoenix" if FunPlus Phoenix win the match against Nova Esports. This market will resolve to "Nova Esports" if Nova Esports win the match against FunPlus Phoenix. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: FPX (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
FunPlus Phoenix face Nova Esports in an upper bracket semifinal of the Valorant Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1, scheduled for 12 May at 05:00 ET. The best-of-three match determines advancement in a regional qualifier feeding into a broader international competition. The current order book on Polymarket prices FunPlus Phoenix at 62% implied probability, reflecting modest favouritism despite their status as an established Chinese organisation.
FunPlus Phoenix have competed consistently in Chinese Valorant circuits and maintain roster stability, whilst Nova Esports represent a secondary-tier challenger. Historical qualifier matchups between established and emerging Chinese teams typically favour the former by 55–70% depending on recent form and roster changes. The 62% probability sits within this range, suggesting the market has priced in FunPlus Phoenix's experience advantage without overweighting it. Recent Chinese Valorant qualifier results show competitive depth, meaning upset potential remains material.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule adjustments prior to the 12 May settlement window. Chinese esports qualifiers occasionally face timing shifts due to broadcast coordination or venue logistics. Scrim results or public practice footage released in the week before competition could shift the order book materially. The seven-day delay clause in the resolution criteria creates a tail risk if organisational issues arise, though Esports World Cup events typically maintain scheduling discipline. Current liquidity on the order book will determine execution costs for position adjustments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://vlr.gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$99 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $99 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: