Trade: LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 12 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $236K
- Total Volume
- $57K
- 24h Volume
- $56K
- Open Interest
- $50K
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 25% YES | 75% NO |
Market context
Top Esports and Ninjas in Pyjamas are scheduled to meet in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Ascend competition on 12 May at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Top Esports at 71% implied probability, reflecting a substantial favourite position. This pricing emerges from the cumulative depth of bids and asks across the book, with the spread between buy and sell orders typically tightening as match day approaches.
Top Esports have established themselves as one of China's premier organisations, with consistent LPL performances and international tournament experience. Ninjas in Pyjamas, whilst a respected European-origin franchise, has faced competitive pressures in recent seasons. Historical matchups between top-tier Chinese teams and European representatives in regional competitions have typically favoured the Chinese side, particularly in structured league play where preparation depth and scrim access favour established rosters. The 71% probability aligns with conventional expectations for such a pairing, though the remaining 29% reflects genuine uncertainty inherent in best-of-three formats where meta shifts and draft execution can shift outcomes.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes in the days preceding 12 May, as substitutions can materially alter match dynamics. Schedule adherence matters given the settlement window's 7-day buffer—any postponement beyond 19 May triggers a 50-50 resolution. Recent patch notes and champion balance shifts released before the match window will shape both teams' preparation strategies and should be cross-referenced against their historical champion pools and scrim results if publicly available.
Wikipedia Context
-
Lol TolhurstLaurence Andrew Tolhurst is an English musician, songwriter, producer, and author. He was a founder member of the Cure, for which he first played drums before switching to keyboards. He left the Cure in 1989, and later formed the bands Presence and Levinhurst. He has also published two books and developed the Curious Creatures podcast. His most recent studio
-
Tove LoEbba Tove Elsa Nilsson, known professionally as Tove Lo, is a Swedish singer-songwriter. She is known for her raw, grunge-influenced take on pop music. Referring to her autobiographical lyrics, Out called Lo "the saddest girl in Sweden", while Rolling Stone called her "Sweden's darkest pop export".
-
LollipopA lollipop is a type of sugar candy usually consisting of hard candy mounted on a stick and intended for sucking or licking. Different informal terms are used in different places, including lolly and sucker. Lollipops are available in many flavors and shapes.
-
Lol CoxhillGeorge Lowen Coxhill known professionally as Lol Coxhill, was an English free improvising saxophonist. He played soprano and sopranino saxophone.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$57K in lifetime turnover and $236K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $56K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: