Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Shopify Rebellion and Disguised in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 16 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against Disguised. This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Shopify Rebellion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Shopify Rebellion and Disguised will face off in a best-of-three League of Legends match during the LCS Regular Season, with the fixture originally scheduled for 16 May at 7:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating substantial uncertainty amongst traders regarding which team will secure victory. This even probability suggests neither side commands clear favouritism based on recent performance data or roster composition available to the market.
Both organisations operate within the competitive North American League of Legends ecosystem, where regular season outcomes often hinge on meta adaptation and mid-season roster adjustments. Historical LCS matches between similarly-ranked teams typically settle near even odds when neither squad has demonstrated decisive dominance in recent weeks. The 50-50 pricing reflects genuine competitive parity rather than information asymmetry, with both teams likely possessing comparable win rates and recent form metrics that traders are weighing equivalently.
Key variables for traders monitoring this fixture include any last-minute roster changes, player illness or visa complications that could affect team composition, and the broader LCS schedule context—delays beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome. Official LCS announcements regarding confirmed lineups typically arrive 24–48 hours before match time. Traders should monitor the LCS official website and team social media channels for any scheduling adjustments or competitive integrity issues that might materialise between now and the 17 May settlement deadline.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lcs. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lcs. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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