Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between PCIFIC and Dark Passage in the TCL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 12 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "PCIFIC " if PCIFIC win the match against Dark Passage. This market will resolve to "Dark Passage" if Dark Passage win the match against PCIFIC . If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 79% YES | 22% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Game Handicap: PCIFIC (-1.5) vs Dark Passage (+1.5) | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 26% YES | 74% NO |
PCIFIC and Dark Passage are scheduled to contest a League of Legends best-of-three match in the TCL (Turkish Championship League) regular season on 12 May at 1:30 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for PCIFIC victory, suggesting market participants view them as clear favourites in this matchup. The settlement window closes at 23:30 UTC on the scheduled date, with resolution contingent on a decisive outcome; cancellations, ties, or delays exceeding seven days without completion trigger a 50-50 split.
TCL regular season matches historically exhibit relatively stable scheduling, with forfeits and disqualifications remaining uncommon relative to other regional leagues. Dark Passage's recent form and roster composition will materially influence whether the current probability holds; teams with significant roster changes or recent losses typically see wider probability spreads. PCIFIC's positioning as the implied favourite suggests either superior recent performance metrics, head-to-head records, or perceived roster strength within the market's assessment.
Traders should monitor TCL official announcements for any schedule changes, player availability issues, or roster alterations in the days preceding the match. Patch changes to League of Legends itself, released on Tuesdays, can occasionally shift competitive dynamics if they alter champion viability or itemisation strategies. Recent team statements or scrim results, where publicly available through esports news outlets, occasionally surface ahead of high-stakes matches and can shift market sentiment. The 79% probability leaves meaningful room for contrarian positioning should new information emerge regarding either team's preparation or circumstances.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: PCIFIC vs Dark Passage (BO3) - TCL Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$637 in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $637 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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