Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Ozarox Esports and Team Phoenix in the TCL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 15 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ozarox Esports" if Ozarox Esports win the match against Team Phoenix. This market will resolve to "Team Phoenix" if Team Phoenix win the match against Ozarox Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Game Handicap: OZO (-1.5) vs Team Phoenix (+1.5) | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% YES | 74% NO |
Ozarox Esports and Team Phoenix are scheduled to contest a League of Legends best-of-three match in the Turkish Championship League (TCL) Regular Season on 15 May at 10:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for Ozarox, suggesting near-parity between the two sides with a marginal lean towards the favourites. Settlement occurs at 20:30 UTC on the scheduled date, allowing for the full match window plus administrative closure.
The TCL regular season typically features competitive mid-table squads with inconsistent form across the split. Historical precedent suggests that matches between teams ranked similarly in regional standings—where neither possesses dominant recent form—tend to settle near 50-50 odds. Ozarox's slight edge in the current book likely reflects either recent head-to-head record, current league standing, or roster composition relative to Team Phoenix, though the narrow margin indicates limited conviction among traders.
Traders should monitor TCL fixture announcements for any schedule changes or postponements, which could trigger the seven-day delay clause leading to 50-50 resolution. Roster announcements, injury reports, or substitutions announced before match day would alter win probabilities materially. The settlement window closes definitively at 20:30 UTC on 15 May; any technical issues or incomplete matches after that point would resolve according to the stated tie-break rules rather than remaining open for extended play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $90 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/riotgamesturkish. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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