Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between FENNEL and Arneb in the LJL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FENNEL" if FENNEL win the match against Arneb. This market will resolve to "Arneb" if Arneb win the match against FENNEL. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game Handicap: FNL (-1.5) vs Arneb (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% YES | 74% NO |
FENNEL and Arneb are scheduled to compete in a League of Legends best-of-three match within Japan's LJL Regular Season on 14 May at 07:00 ET. The market currently reflects a 91% implied probability of FENNEL victory, suggesting substantial confidence in the higher-seeded or more established roster. This pricing emerges from Polymarket's order book, where traders have positioned themselves ahead of the fixture, establishing the current spread between YES and NO positions.
FENNEL's dominance in LJL fixtures has historically supported elevated win probabilities in similar matchups. When examining comparable regular-season encounters between established LJL organisations and lower-ranked challengers, markets typically settle between 85–95% for the favoured side, particularly when roster stability and recent performance metrics diverge significantly. Arneb's competitive standing within the league structure and their head-to-head record against FENNEL will determine whether this 91% pricing reflects genuine capability gaps or market overconfidence.
Traders should monitor official LJL scheduling announcements for any fixture postponements, as the settlement window extends seven days beyond the scheduled date before triggering a 50-50 resolution. Team roster changes, player availability disclosures, or last-minute substitutions announced within 48 hours of match time could shift the order book materially. Additionally, any technical disruptions or broadcast delays that prevent match completion would invoke the tie resolution clause, creating tail-risk considerations for positions held at current odds.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/leagueoflegendsjp. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: FENNEL vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/leagueoflegendsjp. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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