Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between FlyQuest and LYON in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 17 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against FlyQuest. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 51% NO |
FlyQuest and LYON are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the LCS Regular Season on 17 May at 7:00 PM ET. The market currently reflects a 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders view both teams as evenly matched heading into this fixture. Settlement occurs on 18 May at 05:00 UTC, allowing a seven-day window for match completion before resolution defaults to a 50-50 split should delays occur.
Historical precedent in LCS regular season matchups between similarly ranked teams typically shows implied probabilities clustering around 45-55 range when rosters are stable and recent performance data is mixed. FlyQuest's historical standing in the league and LYON's competitive positioning would normally anchor expectations, but the current equipoise on the order book suggests either limited pre-match information asymmetry amongst traders or genuine uncertainty regarding roster form and recent scrim results. Comparable BO3 fixtures in the LCS have resolved decisively more often than the current probability distribution implies, though upsets remain material.
Traders should monitor official LCS scheduling announcements for any roster changes, injury disclosures, or schedule adjustments in the days preceding 17 May. Recent patch notes affecting champion viability and jungle pathing could shift preparation priorities between teams. Scrim results, if leaked through esports reporting outlets, occasionally move markets substantially. The settlement window's seven-day buffer provides protection against minor scheduling delays, though extended postponements remain a tail risk requiring attention to LCS communications channels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lcs. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lcs. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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