Trade: LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Barça eSports and FALKE Esports in the LES Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 13 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Barça eSports" if Barça eSports win the match against FALKE Esports. This market will resolve to "FALKE Esports" if FALKE Esports win the match against Barça eSports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $31K
- Total Volume
- $7K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Game Handicap: BAR (-1.5) vs FALKE Esports (+1.5) | 88% YES | 13% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% YES | 73% NO |
Market context
Barça eSports face FALKE Esports in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LES (Liga Española de Videojuegos) regular season, scheduled for 13 May at 16:00 GMT. The 97% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a substantial skill gap between the two organisations. Barça eSports competes as one of Spain's most established esports franchises with consistent LES participation and infrastructure investment, whilst FALKE Esports operates as a smaller regional competitor with limited tournament visibility. The current odds suggest market participants assess Barça as heavy favourites to advance.
Historical precedent in regional League of Legends competitions shows that matchups between tier-one franchises and smaller regional teams typically resolve in favour of the established organisation at probabilities between 85–95%, depending on roster strength and recent form. Barça's sustained presence in LES and access to professional coaching staff typically translates to consistent performance against lower-seeded opponents. However, single best-of-three formats introduce variance; upsets occur in approximately 5–10% of such matchups when skill differentials exist but remain bridgeable.
Traders should monitor roster announcements or last-minute substitutions from either side before the settlement window closes on 13 May at 21:00 GMT, as mid-season roster changes occasionally occur in regional Spanish leagues. Schedule confirmation from the LES governing body remains critical, given the seven-day delay clause in the market's resolution criteria. Recent LES fixtures have proceeded on schedule, though technical issues or unforeseen circumstances could trigger the 50-50 tie-break resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/LES. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$7K in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/LES. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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