Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between REKONIX and Tundra Esports in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 15 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against Tundra Esports. This market will resolve to "Tundra Esports" if Tundra Esports win the match against REKONIX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
REKONIX, a developing Eastern European Dota 2 roster, face Tundra Esports in a best-of-three group stage match at DreamLeague, one of the scene's longest-running seasonal tournaments. The fixture is scheduled for 15 May at 09:30 ET, with settlement closing at 19:30 the same day. The 11% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a substantial skill gap; Tundra are a tier-one European squad with consistent LAN placements and roster stability, whilst REKONIX remain largely unproven at this competitive tier. The current pricing suggests traders assess REKONIX's win probability as roughly one in nine.
Historical matchups between established European sides and emerging rosters in DreamLeague group stages typically settle at probabilities between 5% and 15% for the underdog, depending on recent form and roster changes. Tundra's recent participation in the Dota Pro League and their continued presence in upper-bracket runs across majors establishes them as favourites. REKONIX's limited tournament history and lack of notable upsets against comparable opponents inform the low probability; the market is pricing in a straightforward Tundra victory as the base case.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule adjustments in the week prior to the match. DreamLeague occasionally shifts group timings based on regional connectivity or broadcaster requirements. Injury or stand-in announcements from either side could shift the probability meaningfully, particularly if Tundra field a substitute player. Recent patch notes affecting hero meta may also influence preparation time available to both teams before the fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$293 in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $293 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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