Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between PlayTime and Yellow Submarine in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win the match against Yellow Submarine. This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win the match against PlayTime. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 66.5 in Game 1? | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 64.5 in Game 1? | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 58.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 57.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 56.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 1% NO |
PlayTime and Yellow Submarine are scheduled to compete in a lower bracket quarterfinal best-of-three match within the 1win Essence Playoffs on 10 May at 08:00 ET. The winner advances further in the tournament's elimination bracket, whilst the loser is eliminated. The match settlement window closes at 18:00 UTC on the same day, providing a six-hour buffer beyond the scheduled start time for completion.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity at current price levels or a consensus view that PlayTime represents the overwhelming favourite. Lower bracket matches in professional Dota 2 tournaments typically feature teams with established track records, though upsets occur with measurable frequency—particularly when roster changes, patch adaptations, or meta shifts create asymmetric preparation advantages. Historical Dota 2 playoff data shows that seeding and bracket position correlate with outcomes, but individual match variance remains substantial enough that extreme probabilities warrant scrutiny regarding underlying information.
Traders should monitor official 1win Essence Playoffs communications for any schedule changes, roster confirmations, or technical delays that could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match extends beyond seven days without completion. Recent esports scheduling has proven vulnerable to unforeseen disruptions; confirmation of both teams' readiness and venue stability closer to the scheduled date will clarify whether current pricing reflects genuine competitive assessment or simply thin order book depth at extreme probability levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lakelzth. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$282K in lifetime turnover and $323K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $282K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lakelzth. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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