Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between PlayTime and REKONIX in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 14 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win the match against REKONIX. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against PlayTime. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 73% NO |
PlayTime and REKONIX are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group B stage on 14 May at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability favoring PlayTime, suggesting the market perceives them as the stronger favourite heading into the fixture. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where participants have priced in available information about both teams' recent form and roster composition.
DreamLeague Group B matches typically feature established regional qualifiers and invited teams competing for seeding advantages in subsequent tournament stages. PlayTime's elevated probability aligns with patterns observed in similar Dota 2 group-stage fixtures where teams with stronger recent LAN placements or more stable roster continuity command higher implied odds. Historical resolution data from comparable esports prediction markets shows that 70%+ favourites in best-of-three formats win approximately 80–85% of the time, though variance remains material given Dota 2's patch-dependent metagame and individual match volatility.
Traders should monitor official DreamLeague scheduling announcements for any postponements or cancellations, as the settlement window extends to 23:00 UTC on 14 May—allowing a seven-day grace period before forced 50-50 resolution. Recent roster changes, player illness, or visa complications affecting either squad could shift the order book materially. Additionally, patch updates released immediately before the match window occasionally reshape hero viability and team preparation timelines, creating late-stage information asymmetries that may move prices on Polymarket's book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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