Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between PARIVISION and Natus Vincere in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 15 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against PARIVISION. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
Natus Vincere face PARIVISION in a DreamLeague Group B best-of-three match on 15 May at 9:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 73% implied probability favouring Na'Vi, pricing PARIVISION at approximately 27 cents. This probability spread suggests the market views Na'Vi as a clear favourite, though the depth of liquidity and recent trading activity will determine how readily positions can be entered or exited near settlement.
Na'Vi's historical dominance in Dota 2 and consistent roster stability typically command premium odds in group-stage fixtures against lesser-seeded opponents. PARIVISION, whilst a capable regional competitor, has historically struggled against tier-one European and international squads in tournament settings. The 73% probability aligns with conventional expectations when Na'Vi faces mid-tier challengers, though group-stage matches occasionally produce upsets when preparation gaps or meta-specific drafting advantages emerge.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding roster changes, player health, or practice schedules in the days preceding the match, as these can shift implied probabilities materially. DreamLeague's official schedule and any format changes should be verified, particularly given the seven-day cancellation clause embedded in the market's resolution criteria. Recent patch updates to Dota 2 can also influence team confidence and preparation timelines, potentially affecting pre-match sentiment reflected in order book movement closer to the 19:30 UTC settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$878 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $878 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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