Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between L1ga Team and MOUZ in the 1win Essence Decider Stage, initially scheduled for May 7 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "L1ga Team" if L1ga Team win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against L1ga Team. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 100% YES | 1% NO |
L1ga Team and MOUZ will compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during the 1win Essence Decider Stage on 7 May at 11:00 AM ET. The winner advances in the tournament bracket whilst the loser is eliminated. The match is scheduled to conclude well before the settlement window closes at 21:55 UTC the same day, providing a clear resolution window barring significant delays.
The 66% implied probability favouring L1ga Team reflects their recent competitive standing within the CIS and European Dota 2 scenes. MOUZ has competed inconsistently in recent months, with roster changes and limited high-level LAN appearances affecting their form. Historical matchups between these teams and their respective tournament performances in 2024–2025 suggest L1ga Team holds a marginal advantage, though best-of-three formats introduce volatility—any team can secure two maps through strategic adaptation or individual player performance spikes.
Traders should monitor official 1win Essence announcements for any schedule changes, as the five-day settlement window allows limited buffer for rescheduling. Roster confirmations and recent scrim results posted by team accounts or esports news outlets in the 48 hours before the match may shift expectations. Technical issues or server problems during live play could trigger delays; the seven-day cancellation threshold provides substantial protection against minor postponements, but extended delays beyond that window would force a 50-50 resolution regardless of match progress.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/gorgc. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - 1win Essence Decider Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$274K in lifetime turnover and $452K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $274K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/gorgc. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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