Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Ilbirs eSports and DOGSENT in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for May 2 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ilbirs eSports" if Ilbirs eSports win the match against DOGSENT. This market will resolve to "DOGSENT" if DOGSENT win the match against Ilbirs eSports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs DOGSENT (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ilbirs eSports will face DOGSENT in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within the European Pro League Group B on 2 May at 16:00 UTC. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for match completion, indicating traders are pricing in near-certainty that the fixture will be played and settled to a winner rather than cancelled, delayed beyond the seven-day window, or ending in a tie. This extreme probability typically emerges when a match is scheduled within a structured league format with established broadcast commitments and minimal historical cancellation risk.
European Dota 2 league fixtures rarely face cancellation once scheduled, particularly within formalised group stages where fixture congestion and sponsor obligations create strong incentives for completion. Both teams' recent participation records and league standing will influence whether either side might forfeit or withdraw, though such occurrences remain statistically uncommon in established regional competitions. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 2 May, providing a six-hour buffer after the scheduled start time to accommodate typical match duration and administrative resolution.
Traders should monitor team roster announcements and any official EPL communications regarding fixture changes in the week preceding the match. Server stability issues or unforeseen technical problems during broadcast have occasionally delayed Dota 2 matches, though these typically result in rescheduling rather than cancellation. The current 100% probability reflects the base rate of league matches reaching decisive outcomes; any credible cancellation announcement would likely shift the market substantially toward the 50-50 tie resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/epldota_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/epldota_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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