Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between ex-HEROIC and Virtus.pro in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 13 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "ex-HEROIC" if ex-HEROIC win the match against Virtus.pro. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against ex-HEROIC. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Game Handicap: ex-HEROIC (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 73% NO |
Ex-HEROIC and Virtus.pro are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage on 13 May at 1:00 PM ET. The 60% implied probability on Polymarket's order book currently favours ex-HEROIC, reflecting market participants' assessment that the roster—composed of former HEROIC players—holds a slight edge in this fixture. DreamLeague remains one of the circuit's most established tournaments, and Group A matches carry weight for seeding and momentum heading into later stages.
Historical context suggests that ex-HEROIC has demonstrated competitive strength in recent Dota 2 qualifiers and regional competitions, though Virtus.pro retains a stable core with proven LAN experience. The 60–40 split on the order book reflects genuine uncertainty rather than overwhelming confidence; similar matchups between tier-one European and CIS-region rosters typically settle within a 55–65% range depending on recent form and patch adaptation. Both teams' performances at preceding events and scrim results would have informed current pricing.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes through official DreamLeague channels and team announcements prior to the 13 May deadline. Patch updates to Dota 2 in the days before the match could shift hero viability and preparation depth. Internet connectivity issues or technical delays affecting either team's region remain settlement risks; the market's 50–50 tiebreaker clause applies if the match extends beyond seven days without resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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