Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between ex-HEROIC and Team Falcons in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 14 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "ex-HEROIC" if ex-HEROIC win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against ex-HEROIC. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 34% YES | 67% NO |
Ex-HEROIC and Team Falcons will contest a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage on 14 May at 9:30 AM ET. The 50-50 implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty between two rosters with contrasting recent form and regional positioning. Ex-HEROIC, the European squad, has undergone roster transitions following their departure from the main Heroic organisation, whilst Team Falcons represents the Middle Eastern competitive circuit with established LAN experience from regional qualifiers.
Historical precedent suggests Group A matches at DreamLeague often favour teams with recent LAN attendance and stable five-man rosters. Ex-HEROIC's transitional status—rebuilding chemistry after organisational changes—typically correlates with higher volatility in early-stage tournament play. Team Falcons' consistency in Middle Eastern qualifiers has produced predictable results, though their performance against European opposition at international events shows mixed outcomes. The 50-50 split on current order flow indicates traders are pricing in both the uncertainty of ex-HEROIC's form and Falcons' unproven matchup history against reformed European lineups.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute stand-in announcements through 13 May, as DreamLeague occasionally accommodates late substitutions. Fixture scheduling delays are possible given the tournament's multi-region participation; the settlement window's 7-day buffer accounts for potential rescheduling. Recent ESL and PGL tournaments have shown similar Group A matches settling within 48 hours of scheduled time, providing baseline expectations for match completion likelihood.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$135 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $135 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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