Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between GamerLegion and Team Spirit in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 15 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against GamerLegion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
GamerLegion will face Team Spirit in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during DreamLeague Group A on 15 May at 06:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices GamerLegion's victory at 21%, implying Team Spirit as clear favourites at 79%. This probability reflects Team Spirit's established standing within the professional Dota 2 circuit, where they remain consistently ranked amongst the world's top teams, whilst GamerLegion operates at a lower competitive tier.
Historical matchups between these rosters provide limited direct precedent, but Team Spirit's recent tournament performances—including consistent placements in upper brackets at major events—establish them as substantially stronger on paper. GamerLegion has competed in regional qualifiers and secondary tournaments, creating a significant skill gap that the current market pricing captures. When comparing similar mismatches in DreamLeague group stages, underdogs at 20% probability typically convert wins in roughly 15–25% of cases, suggesting the market may be pricing this fairly or slightly favouring Team Spirit.
Traders should monitor roster changes or last-minute substitutions, which occasionally occur before group stage matches. The settlement window closes immediately after the scheduled start time, so any delays beyond the 7-day threshold would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent patch updates to Dota 2 can also shift meta-dependent matchups, though both teams adapt to changes regularly. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled should arrive through official DreamLeague communications within 24 hours of fixture time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$680 in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $680 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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