Trade: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and Virtus.pro in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 13 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Virtus.pro. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $23K
- Total Volume
- $7
- 24h Volume
- $7
- Open Interest
- $7
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% YES | 74% NO |
Market context
Team Falcons and Virtus.pro are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage on 13 May at 06:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for Team Falcons, pricing them as clear favourites. This probability has formed through active trading across the book's depth, with the spread between bid and ask orders settling near that level as of today.
Team Falcons have established themselves as a consistent top-tier contender in regional and international Dota 2 competition, whilst Virtus.pro has experienced roster instability and variable performance across recent seasons. Historical matchups between squads of comparable calibre suggest that a 77% probability for the stronger-seeded team typically reflects a 15–25 percentage-point gap in win-rate expectations, accounting for map variance and patch-dependent hero strength. The current pricing aligns with Falcons holding a material but not overwhelming advantage in a best-of-three format.
Traders should monitor DreamLeague's official schedule for any postponements or cancellations, particularly given the early morning ET start time which occasionally creates logistical friction. Roster changes or last-minute stand-in announcements from either organisation could shift the probability materially; Virtus.pro's historical reliance on roster adjustments makes this a relevant watch point. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on 13 May, allowing approximately ten hours post-match for result confirmation and potential dispute resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$7 in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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