Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Yawara Esports and Turma do Pagode in the Odyssey Cup Brazil Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yawara Esports" if Yawara Esports win the match against Turma do Pagode. This market will resolve to "Turma do Pagode" if Turma do Pagode win the match against Yawara Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: TdP (-1.5) vs Yawara Esports (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Yawara Esports face Turma do Pagode in a Counter-Strike best-of-three semifinal match scheduled for 10 May at 2:00PM ET as part of the Odyssey Cup Brazil Playoffs. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Yawara Esports, indicating the market has priced them as heavy favourites to advance to the final. This extreme probability reading suggests either substantial confidence in Yawara's superiority or limited liquidity in the order book at present.
Brazilian Counter-Strike tournaments have historically produced competitive matches despite apparent skill gaps, particularly in playoff stages where preparation and map selection play decisive roles. Turma do Pagode's presence in the semifinal indicates they have already cleared qualification hurdles, though Yawara's positioning at 100% suggests the market views them as significantly stronger based on recent form, head-to-head records, or roster composition. Comparable regional tournaments show that even favoured teams occasionally falter under playoff pressure.
Traders should monitor for schedule confirmations, roster changes, or injury announcements in the days preceding 10 May, as these could shift the probability materially. The settlement window closes 11 May at 00:00 UTC, providing a narrow window for resolution. Any match delay extending beyond 7 days without a determined winner would trigger a 50-50 split, creating tail risk for those holding extreme positions. Current liquidity constraints appear to be anchoring the probability at its ceiling.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/gamersclubcs. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - Odyssey Cup Brazil Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/gamersclubcs. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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