Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Tricked and ex-RUBY in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 13 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Tricked" if Tricked win the match against ex-RUBY. This market will resolve to "ex-RUBY" if ex-RUBY win the match against Tricked. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: TRI (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Tricked and ex-RUBY are set to contest a Counter-Strike best-of-three match in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage on 13 May at 1:00 PM ET. The winner advances through the group phase of this regional competitive tournament. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on 13 May, allowing a 22-hour window for match completion from scheduled start time. Polymarket's order book currently prices Tricked at 52% implied probability, reflecting marginal favouritism in a fixture treated as relatively even by market participants.
Both squads operate within the tier-two European Counter-Strike landscape, where roster stability and recent LAN performance carry substantial weight in match outcomes. Tricked has maintained a consistent core across recent months, whilst ex-RUBY represents a reformed roster with variable recent results. Historical precedent suggests matches between similarly-ranked teams in NODWIN events tend to settle near 50-50 odds unless one side carries demonstrable recent form advantage. The current 52-48 split on Polymarket's book indicates traders perceive marginal edge to Tricked without conviction.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and any schedule adjustments prior to 13 May. NODWIN tournament infrastructure has historically maintained fixture schedules reliably, reducing forfeit risk. Recent roster changes or injury disclosures from either team would shift the probability substantially. The seven-day delay clause in settlement terms creates minimal practical risk given the tight scheduling window. Watch for any official tournament communications regarding venue or timing changes in the 48 hours preceding the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Tricked vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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